Study: Volume of microplastics in Pacific to rise fourfold by 2060

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The amount of ecosystem-threatening microplastics floating in the Pacific Ocean will double by 2030 and rise fourfold by 2060, according to the world’s first estimate of its kind.

A group of researchers mainly from Kyushu University and the Tokyo University of Marine Science and Technology simulated how microplastics–tiny plastic pieces that have been broken down by ultraviolet rays and ocean waves–spread in waters.

Defined as pieces measuring 5 millimeters or smaller, microplastics are being consumed by marine creatures, negatively affecting ecosystems and posing a global problem.

“Plans to reduce the amount of plastic waste that flows into seas need to be developed to strengthen countermeasures,” said Atsuhiko Isobe, a physical oceanography professor at Kyushu University.

The scientists in 2016 surveyed waters 1 meter deep for microplastics 0.3 to 5 mm in diameter in seas between the South Pole and Japan on the Umitaka Maru training vessel of the Tokyo University of Marine Science and Technology.

They also estimated the weight of microplastics per cubic meter of seawater, and combined the results with forecasts on plastic debris flowing into oceans and other data.

The findings showed a doubling of the weight concentration by 2030 and a fourfold increase by 2060.

The research also estimated that microplastics will reach 1 gram or heavier per cubic meter of seawater around Japan and in the central part of the North Pacific every August, when the waves are gentler and microplastics rise to the surface.

The 1-gram concentration is comparable to levels confirmed to have the strongest effects on living creatures, according to the scientists.

The team’s findings were published in the British scientific journal Nature Communications on Jan. 24.

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